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Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes
Factor model Forecasting Principal components
2014/3/18
This article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors. The predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by princ...
Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country speci&c versus area-wide information
Forecasting Aggregation Factor models
2014/3/18
This paper compares several time series methods for short-run forecasting of Euro-wide in2ation and real activity using data from 1982 to 1997. Forecasts are constructed from univariate autoregression...