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Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model oldest old potential support ratio t distribution United Nations World Population Prospects
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers fo...
An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data
Bayesian MCMC modelling mortality projection WinBUGS
2014/11/26
Objective: IIn this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, via the software WinBUGS, to project future mortality for populations with limite...
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
long-range trends adult mortality projection methods
2009/9/15
This study has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting...
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023
Probabilistic Projection New Entrant Engineers
2009/9/14
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023.