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Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
Smoothed seismicity Earthquake predictability Forecast optimization Area skill score
2015/8/28
Several earthquake forecast experiments in Italy have been initiated within the European testing center of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In preparation for these...
Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
Italy smoothed seismicity earthquake
2015/8/28
We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et a...
Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts
Probabilistic forecasting Earthquake predictability Hypothesis testing Likelihood
2015/8/28
On August 1, 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of this CSE...
Daily earthquake forecasts during the May-June 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence (northern Italy)
Operational earthquake forecast ETAS
2015/8/26
On May 20, 2012, at 02:03 UTC, a magnitude Ml 5.9 earthquake hit part of the Po Plain area (latitude, 44.89 ˚N; longitude, 11.23 ˚E) close to the village of Finale-Emilia in the Emilia-Romag...