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人口出生性别比变动的监测方法
人口出生 性别监测方法
2016/2/29
文章采用国内外人口普查和抽样调查原始数据，从人口学和统计学两个方面研究人口出生性别比变动的监测方法。在人口学监测方法研究过程中，通过实证数据总结出生性别比正常情况下出生性别比、分孩次出生性别比和孩次性别递进生育性别比的基本变动模式与基本特征。在统计学监测方法研究过程中，采用较小样本数据，实证分析人口出生性别比二项分布概率估计和贝叶斯估计方法的有效性，并在此基础上将贝叶斯方法与其他简单统计方法进行比...
低年龄人口数据质量分析与评价
低年龄人口 数据质量
2016/2/26
文章从人口统计数据系统存在的矛盾出发,对低年龄人口数据质量进行了分析与评价,并利用人口系统以外的教育数据来对人口数据进行了校验。结果表明,在考虑死亡的情况下,2000年人口普查数据中对应的0～3岁人口平均每个年龄组漏报了近340万人。这种漏报对中国生育水平、老龄化程度、未来劳动力供给状况、未来育龄人群人数、男女婴儿死亡率和出生性别比等重要人口指标的准确性产生了重要影响。
Survival as a Function of Life Expectancy
force of mortality life expectancy life table stationary population survival function
2009/12/23
It is well known that life expectancy can be expressed as an integral of the survival curve. The reverse - that the survival function can be expressed as an integral of life expectancy - is also tru...
Estimating Mean Lifetime
Lifetime Estimating
2009/9/15
The life expectancy implied by current age–specific mortality rates is calculated with life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. We demonstrate that these ...
Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
long-range trends adult mortality projection methods
2009/9/15
This study has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting...
How many years of life could be saved if malaria were eliminated from a hyperendemic area of northern Ghana
life malaria hyperendemic area northern Ghana
2009/9/14
Malaria is endemic in about 90 countries of the world, half of which are in Africa. Little is known about the demographic impact of the disease, however. This paper uses demographic methods to examine...
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023
Probabilistic Projection New Entrant Engineers
2009/9/14
The Probabilistic Projection of the Supply and Demand for New Entrant Engineers to the South African Labour Market 1994-2023.
The determinants of Areal Childhood Mortality Variation in Swaziland
Areal Childhood Swaziland
2009/9/14
The determinants of Areal Childhood Mortality Variation in Swaziland .
Fertility Transition in Botswana: An African Perspective .
Fertility and Mortality Trends and Implications for Social Demands in Botswana
Fertility Mortality Trends
2009/9/14
Fertility and Mortality Trends and Implications for Social Demands in Botswana.
Since 1800 life expectancy at birth has doubled from about 40 years to nearly 80 years in high-income countries. Pessimists expect these improvements to end soon because we are approaching biological ...
美出台报告分析未来40年世界人口变化（图）
未来40年 世界人口
2009/8/21
美国人口调查局上周出台报告预测说，到2050年，世界上最不发达地区的人口数将会翻番，从现在的8.28亿增加到16.6亿。
“全面小康”;“生育文化”
全面小康 生育文化
2009/7/22
小康社会的一个基本标志是人均GDP。在实现全面建设小康社会这个奋斗过程中，作为构成这一标志数据的“分母”的人口问题，毫无疑问十分重要。因此，建设与时俱进的生育文化，促进计划生育工作登上新的台阶，创造一个良好的，让人口与经济、社会、资源、环境协调发展的人口环境，是一项具有长远的、宏观战略意义的基础工作。
中国人口老龄化的发展趋势及对策研究
中国人口 老龄化发展趋势 对策研究
2009/7/22
人口老龄化是当今世界人口发展的趋势，这种人口年龄结构的变化正在广泛而深刻地影响着人类社会生活的各个方面，人口老龄化已经日益成为世界各国关注的重大人口问题。