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We study the variability of predictions made by bagged learners and random forests, and show how to estimate standard errors for these methods. Our work builds on variance estimates for bagging propos...
Adaptive confidence intervals for regression functions are constructed under shape constraints of monotonicity and convexity. A natural benchmark is established for the minimum expected length of conf...
Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, p-dimensional regression parameter beta and independent normally distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is th...
When computing a confidence interval for a binomial proportion p one must choose between using an exact interval, which has a coverage probability of at least 1-{\alpha} for all values of p, and a sho...
In Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) simulation, classical estimators of asymptotic variances are inconsistent in general. In this work we establish that despite this inconsistency, confidence...
Monte Carlo methods are used to approximate the means,? of random variablesY, whose distributions are not known explicitly. The key idea is that the average of a random sample,Y1,...,Yn, tends to 礱sn...
Global sensitivity analysis is often impracticable for complex and time demanding numerical models, as it requires a large number of runs. The reduced-basis approach provides a way to replace the orig...
Asymptotic multivariate normality for the subseries values of a general statistic form a stationary sequence - with applications to nonparametric confidence intervals
In this short note, we show how to use concentration inequalities in order to build exact confidence intervals for the Hurst parameter associated with a one-dimensional fractional Brownian motion.
We consider independent random variables (r.v.'s) with a common mean $mu$ that either satisfy Lindeberg's condition, or are symmetric around $mu$. Present forms of existing functional central limit th...
Asymptotic confidence intervals of location parameters are proposed in one- and two-sample models. These are robust procedures based on scale-invariant M-statistics. The one-sample procedures have the...
This paper describes an R package implementing large sample tests and confidence intervals (based on the central limit theorem) for various parameters. The one and two sample mean and variance conte...
We consider independent random variables (r.v.’s) with a common mean μ that either satisfy Lindeberg’s condition, or are symmetric around μ. Present forms of existing functional central limit theore...
In this short note, we show how to use concentration inequalities in order to build exact confidence intervals for the Hurst parameter associated with a one-dimensional fractional Brownian motion.
In this short preliminary note I apply the methodology of gametheoretic probability to calculating non-asymptotic confidence intervals for the coefficient of a simple first order scalar autoregressi...

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