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Investigating healthy life expectancy using a multi-state model in the presence of missing data and misclassification
cognitive function microsimulation misclassification panel data
2014/11/26
Background: A continuous-time three-state model can be used to describe change in cognitive function in the older population. State 1 corresponds to normal cognitive function, state 2 to cognitive imp...
Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe
demographic dividends Europe intergenerational transfer national transfer accounts (NTA) population aging population projection savings support ratio
2014/11/26
Background: Support ratios and dependency ratios are widely used as indicators for measuring the effects of population ageing on economic development. Both of these indicators use fixed age limits to ...
Quantifying paradigm change in demography
demographic paradigms empiricism Google books history of demography N-grams
2014/11/26
Background: Demography is a uniquely empirical research area amongst the social sciences. We posit that the same principle of empiricism should be applied to studies of the population sciences as a di...
Fertility in the context of Mexican migration to the United States: A case for incorporating the pre-migration fertility of immigrants
birth rate immigrant families race/ethnic disparities
2014/11/26
Background: Mexican-American fertility is poorly understood because data limitations prevent researchers from accurately estimating the fertility levels of members of this group and from determining h...
Another 'futile quest'? A simulation study of Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort model
age period cohort models identification problem MCMC simulation Yang and Land
2014/11/26
Background: Whilst some argue that a solution to the age-period-cohort (APC) 'identification problem' is impossible, numerous methodological solutions have been proposed, including Yang and Land's Hie...
Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure
agent-based computational demography family policy low fertility social effects social networks social structures
2014/11/25
Objective: In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of family policies in the context of the social structure of a population.Methods: We use an agent-based model to analyse the impact of polici...
Reforging the Wedding Ring: Exploring a Semi-Artificial Model of Population for the United Kingdom with Gaussian process emulators
agent-based computational demography Gaussian process emulator multistate models population dynamics sensitivity analysis
2014/11/25
Background: We extend the "Wedding Ring‟ agent-based model of marriage formation to include some empirical information on the natural population change for the United Kingdom together with behav...
Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics
age at first marriage ecological rationality heuristics mate choice mate search parental investment
2014/11/25
Background: Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relativel...
Validation of spatially allocated small area estimates for 1880 Census demography
census data small area estimation spatial allocation
2014/11/25
Objective: This paper details the validation of a methodology which spatially allocates Census microdata to census tracts, based on known, aggregate tract population distributions. To protect confiden...
Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes: A reflection
demographic regimes demographic transition post-transitional demography
2014/11/24
Background: For the last 70 years the concept of the demographic transition has provided a basis for understanding and predicting population trends in the developing world. However, a majority of the ...
A dynamic birth-death model via Intrinsic Linkage
birth-death models cyclical stability dynamic population models Leslie matrices metastable
2014/11/24
Background: Dynamic population models, or models with changing vital rates, are only beginning to receive serious attention from mathematical demographers. Despite considerable progress, there is stil...
The power of the interviewer: A qualitative perspective on African survey data collection
household interviewers interviews Sub-Saharan Africa survey
2014/11/24
Background: African censuses and surveys remain dependent on interviewers for data collection. Data quality is assured through training and supervision. Many survey concepts are difficult to translate...
Chronological objects in demographic research
age measurement calendar chronological dates duration
2014/11/24
Background: Calendar time, age and duration are chronological objects. They represent an instant or a time period. Age and duration are usually expressed in units with varying lengths. The number of d...
Shaping human mortality patterns through intrinsic and extrinsic vitality processes
adult and juvenile mortality extrinsic mortality intrinsic mortality stochastic processes vitality
2014/11/24
Background: While historical declines in human mortality are clearly shaped by lifestyle and environmental improvements, modeling patterns is difficult because intrinsic and extrinsic processes shape ...
Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth
approximations gamma-Gompertz frailty model hypergeometric function life expectancy at birth
2014/11/24
Background: The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric model applied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy has been calculated...