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Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure
agent-based computational demography family policy low fertility social effects social networks social structures
2014/11/25
Objective: In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of family policies in the context of the social structure of a population.Methods: We use an agent-based model to analyse the impact of polici...
Reforging the Wedding Ring: Exploring a Semi-Artificial Model of Population for the United Kingdom with Gaussian process emulators
agent-based computational demography Gaussian process emulator multistate models population dynamics sensitivity analysis
2014/11/25
Background: We extend the "Wedding Ring‟ agent-based model of marriage formation to include some empirical information on the natural population change for the United Kingdom together with behav...
Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics
age at first marriage ecological rationality heuristics mate choice mate search parental investment
2014/11/25
Background: Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relativel...
Validation of spatially allocated small area estimates for 1880 Census demography
census data small area estimation spatial allocation
2014/11/25
Objective: This paper details the validation of a methodology which spatially allocates Census microdata to census tracts, based on known, aggregate tract population distributions. To protect confiden...
Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes: A reflection
demographic regimes demographic transition post-transitional demography
2014/11/24
Background: For the last 70 years the concept of the demographic transition has provided a basis for understanding and predicting population trends in the developing world. However, a majority of the ...
A dynamic birth-death model via Intrinsic Linkage
birth-death models cyclical stability dynamic population models Leslie matrices metastable
2014/11/24
Background: Dynamic population models, or models with changing vital rates, are only beginning to receive serious attention from mathematical demographers. Despite considerable progress, there is stil...
The power of the interviewer: A qualitative perspective on African survey data collection
household interviewers interviews Sub-Saharan Africa survey
2014/11/24
Background: African censuses and surveys remain dependent on interviewers for data collection. Data quality is assured through training and supervision. Many survey concepts are difficult to translate...
Chronological objects in demographic research
age measurement calendar chronological dates duration
2014/11/24
Background: Calendar time, age and duration are chronological objects. They represent an instant or a time period. Age and duration are usually expressed in units with varying lengths. The number of d...
Shaping human mortality patterns through intrinsic and extrinsic vitality processes
adult and juvenile mortality extrinsic mortality intrinsic mortality stochastic processes vitality
2014/11/24
Background: While historical declines in human mortality are clearly shaped by lifestyle and environmental improvements, modeling patterns is difficult because intrinsic and extrinsic processes shape ...
Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth
approximations gamma-Gompertz frailty model hypergeometric function life expectancy at birth
2014/11/24
Background: The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric model applied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy has been calculated...
Disentangling how educational expansion did not increase women's age at union formation in Latin America from 1970 to 2000
age at union formation cohabitation educational expansion Latin America marriage
2014/11/24
Background: One of the most salient features of Latin American marriages over the last few decades is the stable timing of their union formation, despite educational expansion, the postponement of and...
Estimating spatial inequalities of urban child mortality
child mortality Ghana spatial analysis
2014/11/24
Background: Recent studies indicate that the traditional rural-urban dichotomy pointing to cities as places of better health in the developing world can be complicated by poverty differentials. Knowle...
What is on a Demographer’s Mind? : A Worldwide Survey
demographers opinion science survey
2014/11/20
Background: Over the years, the community of demographers has grown in numbers and research interests, and has become increasingly interdisciplinary. The question is whether this process of growth and...
Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility Rate with Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data: Examples from West Africa
Bayesian inference Demographic and Health Survey local smoother retrospective surveys United Nations variable selection weighted likelihood bootstrap
2014/11/20
Background: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimate...
The mystery of Japan's missing centenarians explained
centenarians elderly Japan longevity mortality
2014/11/20
This report elucidates the issue of Japan’s missing centenarians, which was uncovered in 2010. We provide the latest figures from verification efforts, discuss sources of centenarian information in Ja...